Economy 12-09-2018

OPEC corrects the low forecast of global oil demand in 2018 and 2019

OPEC slightly downgraded its forecast on oil demand in 2018 and 2019 to 98.82 million barrels per day (b / d) and 100.23 million b / d, respectively, according to the report of the organization of the month of September.

"In 2019 it is expected that the world demand for oil will grow by 1.41 million barrels per day, one 20,000 barrels less than in the previous forecast ," says the organization.

Thus, he said, the annual consumption will be 100.23 million b / d.

Likewise, OPEC maintained its forecast of average oil production in Russia at 11.15 million barrels per day (mb / d) for 2018 and 11.17 mb / d for 2018.

"The production of oil in Russia in the third quarter of 2018 was revised 165,000 b / d up, to an average of 11.30 mb / d, therefore it is expected to reach an average of 11.15 mb / d in 2018 , which represents a decline of 0.02 mb / d with reference to last year, "OPEC said in its monthly report, published this September 12.

The figure of 11.15 mb / d was not changed from the previous evaluation of the oil cartel, made in its August report.

According to the document of this month, in 2019 "an annual growth of 0.02 mb / d is expected, up to an average of 11.17 mb / d".

In its September report, OPEC revised upwards the oil extraction in the US in 2018 and 2019, from 10.53 to 10.56 and from 11.48 to 11.51 mb / d.

In particular, the organization improved the forecast for US shale oil production, from 5.91 to 5.98 mb / d in 2018 and from 6.91 to 7 mb / d in 2019.

The document also notes that Iran reduced its crude extraction in July and August by 150,000 b / d to 3,584 mb / d.

In the same period, Saudi Arabia increased oil production by 38,000 b / d to 10,401 mb / d, the text said, citing secondary sources.

As for 2018, the forecast of demand growth contracted by 20,000 b / d compared to the forecast of the previous month to 1.62 million b / d.

World demand for crude, he said, will be reduced to 98.82 million b / d.

In his previous forecast he projected that consumption would amount to 98.83 million barrels per day.

In addition, OPEC attributed the adjustment to the less optimistic forecasts of economic indicators in several countries in Latin America and the Middle East in the first half of this year.

The organization raised the pumping in August by 278,000 b / d to 32.56 million b / d.

"Oil production grew more in Libya, Iraq and Nigeria, and decreased in Iran, Venezuela and Algeria," he said.

In particular, pumping increased in Libya by 256,000 b / d (up to 926,000 b / d), in Iraq by 90,000 (4,649 million b / d) and in Nigeria by 74,000 b / d (1,725 million b / d) .

In total, the 11 countries that make up the cartel reduced supply in August by 1.39 billion b / d, 10% above what they promised in the framework of the oil cut-off agreement reached in 2016.

The pact that seeks to stabilize hydrocarbon prices is in force until the end of 2018.


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