Economy 13-11-2017

World trade will moderate in the fourth quarter, according to the WTO

World trade is expected to moderate in the fourth quarter, according to the latest indicator of the World Trade Organization (WTO) published today.

Indicator shows 102.2 points currently, which points to a continued recovery in the second and third quarter, although it is below the 102.6 points reflected in August, notes the WTO.

In the indicator, 100 points indicate growth according to the trend, while if it exceeds this level suggests more activity for the following months.

The export orders component of the indicator remains above the trend but has recently slowed down, "suggesting that growth will be moderate although quite strong in the coming months.”

The indexes for international air traffic of merchandise and containers in seaports, in turn also show a favorable evolution, although they have lost momentum, which points to a slowdown in growth, says the WTO.

The production and sale of cars meanwhile develop below the trend but they show signs of having reached a point where they can only improve.

This would imply greater consumer confidence, says the WTO, which explains that, in turn, the indexes for electronic components and agricultural raw materials are improving.

However, the level of trade in agricultural commodities remains below the average trend term.

Today's results are in line with the updated forecasts on the growth of world trade that the organization published on September 21, when it predicted a 3.6% advance in trade in 2017, after better than expected progress during the first half of the year.


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